Dr Automotive Design and Tools

Peak oil supply will be hit this year after the economic crisis and low prices in the first quarter of 2009 slashed much needed investment, a senior executive at Australian investment bank Macquarie said.

"This is our view -- capacity has pretty much peaked in the sense that declines equal new resources," Iain Reid, head of European oil and gas research at Macquarie, told Reuters.

The peak oil theory that oil supply is at or near its peak was long considered marginal.

It gained currency when prices zoomed towards their record of nearly $150 hit in July last year, with leading exponents suggesting various dates for the supply peak to be reached.

Some oil majors have acknowledged the prospect of dwindling production, but others have argued better extraction techniques and other technological advances will offset any decline.

Reid's latest research report -- The Big Oil Picture: We're not running out, but that doesn't mean we'll have enough -- sees global oil production capacity topping out at 89.6 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, a far more pessimistic view than most other banks or traditional forecasters.

Underinvestment in mature fields, rising resource nationalism, and the cost and difficulty of retrieving oil from discoveries in ultra-deep water could see global production capacity fall to 87.3 million bpd by 2015, according to Reid.

Reid, who spent 16 years with oil firms Shell and Amerada Hess, saw the current spare capacity cushion of around 5.2 million barrels wiped out by 2012. "With the reduction in spending on mature fields, that's the major driver. Then really it's about, 'where do the new sources come from?'," Reid said, adding the economic crisis had further restricted investment.

"If you look around the world it's either locked up in countries which are difficult to access or it's locked up in countries where they are tightening access or it's in these huge mega-structures which are very difficult to develop technically and cost-wise."

The International Energy Agency, adviser to 28 industrialised nations, has predicted global supply will continue to rise through 2015, but that demand might grow faster than that.

Macquarie saw the potential for a huge supply deficit to emerge, with global oil demand predicted to rise to 90.9 million bpd by 2015 from 84.2 million bpd today because of rising consumption from China and other emerging markets.

"Adding sufficient productive capacity on time is nearly impossible," Reid said in his report.

PRICE TO RISE, BUT NOT SO MUCH

Episodes of higher oil prices would be an obvious consequence, without either a greater political push for efficiency savings or new technological advances, he said.

But his price forecasts were still relatively conservative.

He expected the benchmark U.S. crude contract will average $84 a barrel in 2012, compared with around $71 now. The bank's "long run" forecast is for an average price of $75.

The level of nearly $150 hit last year was unlikely to be repeated, Reid said, because of its immediate damaging effect on the world economy and on fuel demand.

"One hundred dollars a barrel is perhaps liveable with in certain scenarios, but I would say gasoline will reach the $4 level again and that will naturally force more efficiency in the United States," Reid said, adding it was difficult to forecast when such levels would be hit.

Eventually, the trend could be towards peak demand, rather than peak supply as higher prices drive the quest for greater efficiency and alternative energy sources.

"(Oil near $150) would very soon create another set of global economic drivers which would spell much lower demand in the future," said Reid.

"In the very long term we can see demand for oil falling quite substantially."

A German company is working on technology to fit roads with embedded induction-loops that can recharge EVs on the move, without the need for connectors or cords. The technology is similar to that being developed by researchers at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) for the (OLEV), and is an extension of the wireless parking space recharging technology we have previously reported on. It is already being used in production plants and large warehouse facilities to both power and remotely direct robotic floor conveyor vehicles.

The company, Ingenieurgesellschaft Auto und Verkehr (IAV), claims that with their system transmission efficiency is around 90%. The system is sensitive to the distance between the road and the vehicle mounted antenna, so IAV suggest that the electric vehicles could employ active suspension and opto-electronic measurement techniques to automatically maintain the optimum distance. Perhaps having the antenna mounted on an inverted pentagram under the vehicle is the answer.

Because of high transmission efficiency only limited segments of road would need the network as EVs can receive a recharge on a main road, for example, then continue on their way on non-electrified roads powered by the now recharged vehicle battery.

IAV is confident that its electromagnetic induction technology will be developed to production-ready status in the next few years. A 1/28 scale model of the system is already “functioning perfectly” the company says, and construction of a demonstration section of “charging road,” and a full-scale test track, are in the planning stages in the German state of Lower Saxony.

A question remains regarding how to charge drivers for using the system. Burying the induction antenna under 'priority' lanes such as bus lanes or clearways and using the now familiar road tolling methods such as radio toll tag or license plate camera ID could be one solution matching vehicle identification with data recorded of how much current each vehicle draws off the grid.

As the induction system uses a simple insulated cable installed on the ground compared to the suspended overhead line system currently used on sections of electrified railway, we also see potential for this technology to provide a cheaper way to electrify rural and freight railways lines, eliminating the need for diesel locomotives.

Collision avoidance systems that automatically apply the brakes to a speeding car have already been launched by several automakers. But while cars will suddenly slow if they detect an accident is about to happen, automakers have been hesitant to bring them to a sudden and full emergency stop.

Volvo is about to change all that. With the launch of the S60 next year, Volvo will introduce a "full auto brake" and "pedestrian safety" function. Cars will come to a full stop at speeds less than about 15 miles an hour if their radar systems detect they are about to strike a car or a person. If the car is going faster, the car will try to come as close to a full stop as possible.

"If the car is traveling faster, the aim is to reduce the impact speed as much as possible. In most cases, we can reduce the collision force by about 75%," says Thomas Broberg, Volvo's safety expert. "Considering the large number of pedestrian fatalities that occur, if we manage to reduce the fatality risk 20 percent, this new function will make a big difference."

The system is also supposed to work in the event of rear-end impacts with other vehicles. Statistics reveal that half of all drivers who hit another vehicle from behind do not brake at all prior to the collision.



Automakers have said for a while now that they have the ability to bring cars to a full halt without driver input. But they have been hesitant to use the capability. Ford safety chief Steve Kozak says in building the new Taurus, it found that its drivers don't want the car to be able to take such dire action on its own. They want to feel in control. But Volvo has set itself the ambitious goal of eliminating deaths or injuries in its cars by 2020.

"Zero is the one and only alternative for us. As the leader in car safety we can't accept that people are killed or injured just because they want to transport themselves from A to B," says Jan Ivarsson, head of safety strategy at Volvo Cars.

While this isn't, strictly speaking, an EV development, we believe as In-Wheel Motors (which Volvo has been a leading proponent) make their way onto electric cars, fully automated braking will become much cheaper for automakers to incorporate into their cars. With Wheel Motors taking over drive and brake functions dynamic stability becomes a software function within the motor control system (imagine a 4 wheeled Segway). This may lead to auto braking becoming a standard feature, or even mandatory as with stability control, on all new cars with the result being a huge reduction in the global road toll.

The owner of a Shenzhen car and battery maker BYD has emerged from the growing pack of Chinese millionaires to be named the richest person on the mainland after a boost to his wealth driven by an investment by Warren Buffett.

Wang Chuanfu, the founder and chairman of BYD , jumped from 103rd to first place with a net worth of $5.1bn, according to the annual Chinese rich list compiled by Hurun , a Shanghai-based consultancy.

MidAmerican Energy , a business controlled by Berkshire Hathaway, the flagship company of the closely watched US investor, paid $230m for a 10 per cent stake in BYD a year ago. Shares in BYD have since risen more than sevenfold, propelling Mr Buffett's stake to $1.7bn.

While BYD's main businesses are making batteries for mobile phones and producing passenger cars, much of the increase in its valuation has been based on the prospects for the electric cars it is developing.

Coming in second on the rich list was Zhang Yin, who became the first woman to take the top spot back in 2006, with estimated net wealth of $4.9bn. Her family controls Nine Dragons Paper , a paper recycling and packaging company.

Rupert Hoogewerf, of Hurun, said: "It seems to me pretty significant that the two richest people in China are now from companies that have an important green element."

Not all China's green entrepreneurs have fared so well over the past year. Peng Xiaofeng of LDK Solar and Shi Zhengrong of Suntech, both solar panel manufacturers, have dropped out of the top 10 after their share prices fell sharply on fears of substantial overcapacity in the industry in China.

Huang Guangyu, the founder and largest shareholder in the Gome retail chain, who topped the list in 2008, has been in jail since last October after his arrest for vaguely defined "economic crimes". He remains in the top 20 of this year's list.

Mr Wang set up BYD in 1995, building it into one of the biggest suppliers of lithium-ion batteries for phones, before moving into the car industry in 2003.

Most observers thought Mr Buffett was attracted by BYD's plans to build cars powered by its lithium batteries. However, some believe MidAmerican Energy is more interested in using BYD's batteries to store energy at power plants, especially those powered by wind.

The company is the eighth largest carmaker and its F3 saloon is the bestselling passenger car in China this year.

L'industria dei motori progetta il suo futuro stretta tra l'esigenza di ridurre consumi ed emissioni da un lato e quella di garantire prestazioni di livello dall'altro. Per Fiat, la tecnologia chiave è il Multiair. Oggi sui motori a benzina, domani su quelli diesel. Parallelamente continua lo sviluppo delle motorizzazioni a metano e all'orizzonte si vede la rivoluzione dell'auto elettrica, sulla quale, però, occorre ancora lavorare molto. Lucio Bernard, responsabile della ricerca e sviluppo sui motori diesel di Fiat Powertrain Technologies, racconta presente e prossimo futuro dello sviluppo dei motori.
Iniziamo da oggi. Qual è il motore più efficiente?
Certamente il diesel in termini assoluti, anche se considerando le emissioni di CO2 il motore a metano è all'incirca equivalente. Il problema è la prospettiva. Non ci aspettiamo, per i prossimi anni, grandi salti qualitativi. Difficile, per fare un esempio, aumentare l'efficienza del 20%.
Cosa si può fare?
Si possono eliminare ancora alcune inefficienze dei motori a combustione interna. Ci sono ad esempio una serie di componenti accessori, come le pompe dell'acqua e dell'olio, che con il controllo elettronico possono consumare meno energia. Ma, come ho detto, non ci aspettiamo rivoluzioni per il diesel.
Vale lo stesso per i motori a benzina?
In passato erano molto meno efficienti del diesel, nell'ordine del 20-25%. C'erano diverse aree di scarsa efficienza del motore. Le cose stanno cambiando. Una delle tecnologie chiave è il Multiair.
Cosa ci si può aspettare in termine di riduzione di emissioni inquinanti e consumi rispetto ai motori tradizionali?
Con il Multiair riusciamo ad eliminare le perdite di efficienza dovute all'uso della farfalla e nel contempo ad incrementare le prestazioni del motore, allungando quindi i rapporti e facendo lavorare il motore in punti dove consuma di meno. Abbinando a questo il dowsizing, ovvero motori piccoli ed efficienti che non rinunciano alle prestazioni grazie al turbocompressore, si ottiene un risultato ancora maggiore: i consumi, rispetto a un tradizionale motore a benzina aspirato e di cilindrata maggiore, possono scendere del 25% a pari prestazioni.
Vuol dire che il motore a benzina ha raggiunto il diesel?
Le emissioni di CO2 del Multiair si avvicinano molto, mentre sui consumi (in litri) il diesel resta ancora avanti. Ha una densità energetica maggiore: un litro di gasolio rende circa il 10% in più di un litro di benzina.
Guardando ai prossimi dieci anni, si può dire che i motori a benzina cresceranno di più?
Il diesel, che oggi rappresenta circa il 50-55% del mercato, un pochino scenderà a favore del benzina. Tuttavia, anche per come è strutturato il mercato dei combustibili, il consumo di gasolio resterà importante nei prossimi anni. Va detto che i limiti di emissioni Euro 6, che entreranno in vigore nel 2014, potranno mettere il diesel in difficoltà in termini di costi.
Perché?
In questi anni il legislatore ne ha favorito la diffusione per via della maggiore efficienza. Ora viene chiesta una drastica riduzione degli inquinanti. Gli ossidi di azoto (NOx) dovranno crollare del 55%. Il problema è che il diesel ha una combustione molto magra, il tradizionale catalizzatore a tre vie – a differenza del benzina – qui non funziona. Ci vogliono componenti molto più costosi per il trattamento dei gas di scarico dei diesel. Tutti i costruttori, noi compresi, sono molto preoccupati che il diesel esca danneggiato dal rispetto dei nuovi limiti. Puntiamo a portare il Multiair anche sui diesel in vista dei limiti Euro 6, abbattendo le emissioni di NOx con costi contenuti.
Fiat punta molto sul metano…
Il metano classico è una buona alternativa, la distribuzione geopolitica più favorevole e la quantità di riserve accertate credo che aiutino a prolungare l'utilizzo dei combustibili fossili. Ha meno emissioni di CO2 e altri inquinanti. Quest'anno probabilmente supereremo le 100mila vetture a metano prodotte, con una penetrazione sul mercato ben superiore al 5%. Sul lungo termine puntiamo al 10%. Però la rete distributiva è ancora troppo indietro e poco uniforme sul territorio, almeno in Italia. Oggi i distributori sono poco meno di 800, in Germania circa 1000; bisognerebbe arrivare in Italia almeno a 1200 distributori. Se un giorno, infine, arriverà l'idrogeno potremo bruciarlo con il metano e ridurre ulteriormente le emissioni di CO2.
Qualche anno fa si parlava spesso dell'idrogeno. Oggi molto meno, perché?
Il problema è che estrarre l'idrogeno costa e si emette CO2. La produzione è dunque un problema, lo stesso vale per la distribuzione. Le celle a combustibile, inoltre, sono ancora molto costose e poco affidabili. E' vero, se ne parla meno.
Invece si parla molto di auto elettrica. Eppure anche qui i nodi da risolvere sono molti...
Sono convinto che sarà la soluzione della mobilità quando la scarsità dei combustibili fossili sarà davvero un problema. Al momento, però, credo ci sia un po' di enfasi di troppo nel prevedere una rapida penetrazione sul mercato. Primo: le batterie. Al momento una vettura per uso cittadino richiede, per una autonomia di circa 150 km, circa 150 kilogrammi aggiuntivi ed un extra costo per il costruttore. Poi, mancano le infrastrutture di ricarica veloce, e credo che scendere sotto la mezz'ora per la singola ricarica non sia facile.
Voi state lavorando sull'auto elettrica?
Se ne occupa in prima persona il settore Fiat Group Automobiles. Chrysler ci lavora da tempo e credo che saranno fatte sinergie di risorse su questi sviluppi. Penso che Fiat abbia le capacità per lanciare in tempi brevi dei modelli, anche se la penetrazione dei veicoli elettrici sul mercato non sarà così rapida. Nel breve termine vedo anche un buon potenziale per i veicoli commerciali ibridi a uso cittadino, come ad esempio il Daily ibrido Iveco, del quale sta già girano una piccola flotta prototipale.
E i biocarburanti?
In Brasile c'è un mercato interessante e a basso costo da tempo. La tecnologia c'è, solo che in Europa la disponibilità di biocombustibili è molto minore, poiché la superficie coltivabile è molto inferiore. Vedremo con la seconda generazione, che lavora sugli scarti. Certamente non vedo una sostituzione totale, ma qualche punto percentuale sul totale dei combustibili.
(Fonte: www.motori24.ilsole24ore.com - 1/10/2009)

Buone notizie in casa Fiat: cresce la sua quota di mercato in Italia che a settembre arriva al 31,5% grazie alle ottime vendite dei suoi modelli, trend che sta accadendo un po’ in tutto il mondo. Su tutte, va bene la 500, che ad ottobre verrà presentata anche in Brasile e la grande Punto, che il 10 ottobre verrà affiancata dalla versione “Evo”. L’agenzia di rating Morgan Stanley indica per il futuro un “target price” circa doppio rispetto al precedente “prezzo obiettivo” fissato in 8,3 euro e il rating passa ad “overweight”. Nello scenario base, Morgan Stanley indica un prezzo delle azioni della casa automobilistica pari a 16,8 euro e addirittura triplo rispetto al valore del 30 settembre nello scenario più positivo. «La collaborazione con Chrysler offre la possibilità di creare miliardi di euro di valore per gli azionisti. Il prezzo delle azioni raddoppia nello scenario base e triplica in quello più positivo» spiegano a Morgan Stanley. Secondo molti osservatori infatti, la casa torinese è l’unica società che ha approfittato della crisi che, grazie a condizioni politiche senza precedenti, le ha permesso di allargarsi strategicamente. Alle 9,45 del 1 ottobre, Fiat era già la migliore del listino italiano con un progresso di quasi l’8% rispetto al giorno prima: un’azione nella mattinata valeva infatti 9,49 euro. Conclude l’agenzia di rating: «Se le nostre previsioni per la ripresa del mercato dell’auto statunitense e per la realizzazione delle sinergie sono corrette, Chrysler può offrire spazi di rialzo del 100% per Fiat».
(Fonte: www.blitzquotidiano.it - 1/9/2009)

The Battery 500 Project recently held its kickoff meeting at IBM's Almaden Laboratory in San Jose, Calif., where leading scientists, engineers and other experts brainstormed about how to perfect the power source for all-electric automobiles.

As a part of IBM's 2-year-old Big Green Innovations program, the Battery 500 Project aims to boost the range of rechargeable batteries for all-electric cars from less than 100 miles today to as far as 500 miles. The consortium's efforts are being led by the Almaden Lab in collaboration with several U.S. universities and the Department of Energy's national labs.

"Batteries technology has improved, but is still far inferior to gasoline in terms of how much energy they hold," said Spike Narayan, a key IBM researcher. "The energy density—which is the amount of energy a lithium-ion battery stores per unit weight—is really not enough to produce a family-sized sedan with a 300- to 500-mile range."

The remedy, according to IBM, is to harness its nanoscale semiconductor manufacturing techniques to boost the capacity of batteries by increasing their storage density by 10 times over the lithium-ion batteries used today. The Battery 500 Project aims to achieve that goal with a lithium-air battery technology, whose feasibility was demonstrated earlier this year at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.

Lithium-air batteries are unique in that instead of being a sealed system, they couple to atmospheric oxygen—essentially harnessing the oxygen in the air as the cathode of the battery. Since oxygen enters the battery on-demand, it offers an essentially unlimited amount of reactant, metered only by the surface area of its electrodes. IBM believes its nanoscale semiconductor fabrication techniques can increase the surface area of the lithium-air battery's electrodes by at least 100 times, enabling them to meet the goals of the project.

The Battery Project initiative grew from an internal "grand challenge" contest run late last year by IBM's Almaden Lab. The contest's winning entry was the lithium-air battery, the design for which the consortium will attempt to perfect by pooling the resources of about 40 engineers and scientists working on The Battery 500 Project.

IBM also plans to harness its supercomputers to create a simulation so accurate that it will be able to optimize the battery's design parameters, as well as experiment with different catalysts materials, without having to build expensive prototypes. IBM estimates that it will take two years to determine if the goals of The Battery 500 Project can be met with lithium-air battery technology.